Joker was a surprise in every way, not only becoming a great film but also one of the most successful R-rated movies of all time (now alongside Deadpool and Logan) to be nominated for an Oscar. Joaquin Phoenix and composer Hildur Guðnadóttir rightfully earned their golden statues. Many believe the sequel, Folie à Deux, is getting what it deserves too: a flood of negative reviews and box office failure. But does this mean the stars' Oscar chances have also vanished? Let's explore that.
More specifically, Variety looked into this and published an article on the topic, which we are now summarizing. First, let’s look at the facts! Joker: Folie à Deux grossed $40M in North America during its opening weekend, compared to its $200M budget and the first film’s debut of $96.2M. This comes after the Rotten Tomatoes scores show that both critics and audiences rated Todd Phillips' film negatively by more than 70%. Additionally, its CinemaScore was a D on the A–F scale, compared to the original Joker's B+ rating five years ago.
The criticism mainly focused on the musical aspect, the story, and its ideology, labeling Folie à Deux as timid and hollow. However, many acknowledged that Phoenix delivers another outstanding performance. While Lady Gaga’s portrayal of Lee has a surprisingly limited presence compared to what the trailers suggested—meaning she’s not a secondary protagonist—she still delivers a strong performance. In fact, from a dramaturgical perspective, she’s more of an antagonist, luring the protagonist towards darkness, pushing him out of his comfort zone, and forcing him into critical decisions. So, in that sense, her performance is commendable, as she reinterprets Harley Quinn and captivates both Arthur and the audience (for more on their relationship, check out our spoiler-filled article).
Of course, both actors will have their competitors. Variety mentions Selena Gomez (from Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (also a musician – from Wicked), and Jennifer Lopez (from Unstoppable) as examples in the best supporting actress category alongside Gaga. Surprisingly, the article's author believes that the singer-actress is one of Warner's key assets, the studio behind Folie à Deux, but there may be others as well.
Variety mentioned that Joker was not unanimously well-received by critics. As demonstrated by Rotten Tomatoes, only 68% of the reviews for the first installment were positive, while audiences enjoyed it more (with an 89% rating). Although it won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and went on to receive 11 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture—a rarity for comic book films—it faced tough competition from contenders like Parasite (which won) and Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood. Thus, it became one of the most poorly received works to be nominated in the Best Picture category. Therefore, even Joker: Folie à Deux, which has been met with even more unfavorable reviews, has a chance in the Oscar race, although Variety suggests that its success hinges on how much recognition Lady Gaga's performance receives from the industry.
The singer previously competed for the golden statue, winning the award for her song "Shallow" from A Star Is Born. However, she lost in the Best Actress category to Olivia Colman (The Favourite). According to Variety, it is also noteworthy that she received several prestigious nominations (BAFTA, Golden Globe, SAG Awards) for her role in House of Gucci. Of course, it could be problematic that this similarly divisive film was not a favorite of the Academy, only being nominated in the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category.
In terms of the technical categories, Variety cautioned that Joker 2 also has a chance to at least receive a nomination. The work of composer Hildur Guðnadóttir, cinematographer Lawrence Sher, or production designer Mark Friedberg could be recognized by the Academy. And then there’s Phoenix—who we think is much better than Gaga; we didn’t intentionally leave him for last, we just followed Variety's logic.
In any case, the article's author mentioned that the Academy generally favors roles where the actor undergoes a physical and emotional transformation. As is known, Phoenix lost a significant amount of weight to portray Arthur and once again imitated his antihero’s laughter disorder without sparing his throat, which emerges during emotionally challenging situations. So he essentially performed the character through method acting and even showcased his singing talent: while he may sound a bit off-key at times, his work is sincere and cathartic, which could earn him the sympathy of the Academy's jury. However, Variety cautioned that there are instances where, despite an incredible transformation for a role, the decision-makers behind the Oscar are not swayed: see Christian Bale and The Machinist for example.
Phoenix's chances may be improved by the fact that the best actor category might not be as competitive this year: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) are the challengers. Finally, Variety suggests that the cases of Bohemian Rhapsody (4 Oscars) and Green Book (3 Oscars) demonstrate that a film does not necessarily need to receive positive critical reception for the Academy to deem it worthy of the golden statue.
