[BOX OFFICE] Sonic 3 Set to Outpace Mufasa at the Box Office, But There’s Good News for The Lion King Too

With just a week separating their releases, Sonic 3 and Mufasa will face off this weekend in North America. Paramount and Sega’s supersonic hedgehog will go head-to-head with Disney’s legendary Lion King. Projections suggest that Sonic 3 will narrowly win the domestic box office race, but Mufasa has an entire week—during the lucrative Christmas holiday period—to rake in profits internationally before Sonic arrives.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is set to debut across 3,800 U.S. theaters this weekend, with analysts predicting an opening haul between $55 million and $60 million. Meanwhile, The Lion King prequel, Mufasa, will open on 4,000 screens and is expected to earn $50 million domestically. However, its international earnings could soar to $130 million, bringing its first-weekend global total to an estimated $180 million.

While Disney’s 2019 Lion King remake had a much bigger opening weekend in North America, it was a summer release. Holiday releases, like Mufasa, often see longer box office runs if word-of-mouth is strong.

For instance, last year’s Wonka thrived during the same period, opening with $39 million domestically before reaching $218 million in North America and finishing with $634 million globally. Similarly, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opened with just $36 million in December 2017 but went on to gross $404 million domestically and $962 million worldwide.

The projected opening for Sonic 3 could mark the franchise's weakest debut weekend if the lower end of forecasts materializes. The first live-action/CGI hybrid Sonic film opened to $58 million in 2020, a surprise hit that finished with $148 million domestically. Its 2022 sequel, Sonic 2, debuted with $72 million and went on to earn $190 million in North America.